Sunday, June 2, 2024

Narrative Warfare: The UN Report Is Theater

This came out late last week.

It will have all the impact of the warrants from the International Criminal Court: Nothing.

The value of this development matters only insofar as it is a serious loss of Face for Israel that its media and influence operations will have to devote significant time and effort to address and contain.

The reality is that most of the world, being some form of Face Culture, will take this as a signal that it is permissible to go hostile on Israel and those aligned with it.

Those same parties, however, are either too weak to do any real harm to Israel or are already aligned with Israel (regardless of what the population there thinks).

In the short term, it's a nothingburger. In the long term, it depends on how Israel concludes its Gaza operations. It will remain a nothingburger if Israel wins in Gaza, cleans out the Palestinians, and completes its replacement and settlement of the area with its own kind. It will become the cause to begin shifting to open hostility, even violence, by a lot more people if Israel fails or faill short.

The reason, when stripped of the blather and bullshit, is as simple as this: most people live in Face Cultures for the reason in the meme.

It's no surprise that Face Cultures are so violent, even the ones thought of as "civilized", and as such most therein can't defend themselves. QED.

So yes, this report is theater. It is not useless theater. The distinction is in the signalling value.

By itself it's useless. It has to be done with follow-up moves to have any impact on the facts on the ground, and given that Ukraine is ongoing, Taiwan in the mix, the Red Sea being a hot warzone, and the US just getting one big step closer to a second civil war what that follow-up move will need to be is anyone's guess- but it can't be empty words. It has to involve violence targetted at Israel or its interests, and it has to be potent and massive. Talking is now worse than useless.

The Post-War Consensus is over. The new Age of War has begun. Empire must fall.

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