Not A Coup, Not A Mutiny, But Court Politics

Wagner Group was said to have attempted a coup against the Kremlin this past week, ending yesterday. It wasn't anywhere near what was expected.

Instead, what we got was aggressive negotiations between the sovereign and his courtiers.

This would be confirmed:

Former supporter of Prigozhin about alleged agreement between Prigozhin and Russian authorities:

"Now it's finally allowed to say the three things he's been promised. 1. Shoigu's resignation. 2. Amnesty for "musicians" [Wagner mercenaries]. 3. The possibility to return to… pic.twitter.com/FMPiq1vUR1

— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) June 24, 2023

But one thing for certain was that the most Globohomo-friendly result was not on the table.

The only thing that would have resulted from Putin being removed from power is that someone just like him, but far more hardcore, would move in and the war would escalate greatly as a result. A successful coup would only have made things worse.

Instead, what we have here is the use of a mutiny against the Ministry of Defense to disguise the fact that Lukashenko played the cutout between Putin and Prizgoshin to resolve an internal political dispute between Kremlin factions. The Neo-Tsar used it to get rid of a bothersome courtier who wasn't delivering the goods. Wagner is the only successful element on the ground for Russia, and Putin isn't stupid so he made the obvious move to rearrange the court to deliver what he wants.

The consequence is that the Russian military will become more aggressive, not less, and strategic objectives will be amended to gut Ukraine post-war by guaranteeing its inability to support itself by seizing its arable land (agriculture) and industrial assets (sea access, industrial plants) which is symbolized by taking Odessa. Under-handed policies of using Russian minorities abroad to foment unrest in vulnerable states will also escalate (look out Moldova), forcing Globohomo to divert resources away to deal with them (because if they don't, the unrest will be escalated).

Putin now relies on Wagner for his power. That's dangerous, and Putin is playing a dangerous game; past Russian dynasties fell due to court power miscalculations like this as the Romanovs found out the hard way. Expect the war to escalate once this has shaken out, but make no mistake this is trading short-term strength for long-term brittleness; the collapse of the Russian Federation was not prevented today, but rather accelerated and as the second-order effects manifest that will become obvious.

Now let's see if the similar political stability issues in China take a similar turn.