In this moment, we live in the hellworld of 1984.
There are three Imperial Powers: Globohomo, Russia, China. Each one has a sphere of influence. Each says it seeks peaceful coexistence with at least one of the other two, but its behavior belies the reality that it sees both rivals as enemies to be destroyed- one way or another.
The irony is that all three rival Thralls of Empire are very similar to one another, differing only in the details behind how the ruling Thralls execute their control.
But that moment is coming to a close. The Ukraine War was Globohomo successfully baiting Russia into a trap certain to destroy it. Now we see signs that this same strategy is bearing fruit against China.
Let is a defectee from China. She has first-hand experience of the Chinese Communist Party--the Red Dynasty--so she knows how it thinks and works. She's one of the best in the sphere of China Watchers out there, so I take her commentary seriously and watch for others to independently confirm what she presents. (Such others include, but are not limited to: The China Show, Peter Zeihan, and Digging To China)
Remember how I described Globohomo suckering Russia into attacking Ukraine?
You might want to get yourselves, anyone you value, and anything of value out of Taiwan right now. Even if (and at this point, that a big "If") the Red Dynasty somehow wins, they lose. China's demographics and political economy is as dire as Russia's, is as vulnerable to economic warfare as Russia's is, but they are even more fragile than Russia; as Zeihan has pointed out, all it would take to shatter China is to blockcade all oil and gas imports (almost all of which are over the water) and Beijing breaks within six months.
That said, the Chinese military can still inflict massive--ruinous--damage even if it fails in its war aims, something Taiwan takes seriously.
But the damage is done, and not even a successful war can save the Red Dynasty now.
Globohomo is on track to win, even with all of the incompetence and competition within its ranks and all of the domestic discontent in their own sphere, against its rivals.
Which is what should be expected for an Imperial power in competition with rivals, but that means an opportunity is coming that dissidents should prepare for.
- Victory is had.
- Spoils to distribute.
- Spoils disputed; dissidents manufacture disputes.
- Dispite escalates.
- Dissidents engage in targetted ops to keep the fight going.
- In-fighting weakens Globohomo to a critical state.
- Dissidents make the big push, breaking local control.
- Globohomo collapses.
- All Imperial threats exterminated.
- Party time.
That's the problem with rope-a-dope strategies. It involves knowing with certainty that all possible threats are successfully contained until they can be defeated in detail, first worn down and then finished off and dismemebered (to guarantee no future threat potential), as you using superior endurance and control to buy time to gas them out.
If you don't know who all the threats are, you will miss some and now it's you that get preyed upon by a fresh opponent because they wait and watch- not only are they fresh, they have accurate intelligence about you to exploit for best effect.
That, Dissident, is what you need to be doing: waiting, watching, and preparing to strike. Empire ain't going to fall by itself.
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