Something Happened
Yesterday (going on overnight local time) Iran decided to throw a lot of ordinance at Israel.
Iran dispatched waves of armed suicide drones first in swarms. Then they launched medium and long raise cruise missles, followed by ballistic missles. The allegation at the time was that they were to arrive on target at about the same time. The intent was to overwhelm Israel's considerable air defense system (anchored by the Iron Dome).
Israel took the threat seriously, as did Jordon, the United Kingdom, and the United States. All three countries contributed to the air defense response, culling significant numbers of drones and missiles before reaching their targets.
That said, some did get through and some wreckage hit unintended areas. As of this post, the only significant target hit was Ramon Air Base in Israel's Negev region, so after the fact the New York Times and the Telegraph would release these:
Updates from NYT:
— Ian Ellis (@ianellisjones) April 14, 2024
- 331 Iranian drones & missiles launched
- Primarily from Iran, Iraq & Yemen
- U.S. forces helped shoot down
- Israel intercepted most with “some assistance” from allies
“Given how significant this attack was, it is difficult to see how Israel cannot respond.” pic.twitter.com/JPGLcwSx03
As of this post, Iran has not gainsayed these numbers or results.
Israel has already claimed that Tel Aviv will retailate against Tehran for this action. This ignores Tehran's justification for doing this, which was Tel Aviv's bombing of Iran's embassy in Syria and the death of a prominent flag officer therein, in an action Tehran claimed was without justification.
Not that Tel Aviv cares, or ever did.
It's The Economy, Stupid
While there's talk about Israeli nukes being used, often in a mocking matter, that's irrelevant. The real damage Iran seeks to do is not to Israel as such, but to what it depends upon for its power and position: the global economy.
Iran's actions, both directly and via its proxies in Yemen (i.e. the Houthis), have had a serious effect on global economies via disruption of seaborne trade in the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea- trade that includes Saudi Arabia, Oman, Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates via messing with their energy and petrochemical trade with customers across the world, trade that is not helped in the least by Ukraine striking Russia's oil and gas infrastructure and forcing that end of OPEC's output to collapse.
Like it or not, nationals and friends of Israel are prominent in the core sectors of the global economy- including, especially, insurance and banking.
Every disruption, rerouting, impediment, etc. of the flow of goods and capital across the world due to Iran's actions and proxies constitutues unrestricted (but deniable) warfare by Tehran against Tel Aviv.
THis is a cost that everyone, no matter where they are, bears but becomes Israel (and Tel Aviv) got directly attacked there must be a response or Face will be lost.
If this escalated much further, those nuclear weapons won't remain objects of mockery much longer.
The liminal spaces between the Imperial Powers is about to shrink to a much smaller space, which is terrible for anyone seeking to avoid the consequences of such a war going hot- and I say that because World War Three is already here, but it remains cold with threatening flare-ups. It could go hot, and if this goes on it will, and far too many are not ready for it.
And the Imperial Powers see war as the answer to their problems, at home and abroad, so they have incentives to go hot sooner than later.
Get ready.
There's some Telegram channels to monitor on this and other theaters needing watchful eyes.
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