Sunday, August 7, 2022

A Tiger That Roars Often Has No Muscles

This past week, it became clear to observers that the CCP is Globohomo East and they are nothing more than a rival power center striving for control of Empire. It also became clear that, aside from being relentless about its propaganda and speedy in cozying up to prospetive suckers for scamming, it's not that good at anything but beating the shit about its own population.

The reality is that the CCP is a paper tiger. If it wasn't for its savvy at subversion, it would be as the 19th Century Manchu Dynasty or the very weak Republic governments were, and that "Century of Humiliation" would be approach the plural. That's still in the cards.

For all the bluster about Speaker Pelosi and her Taiwan visit, the CCP did not do the world a solid and make good on their threat to take her out. That's because the central power of the CCP is not stupid. Petty, corrupt, venal, and greedy- but not stupid. Those old men know damn well what killing Pelosi, or even so much as forcing her out of Taiwan, would mean and they do not want this.

Gonzolo Lira, like many dissidents, fails to account for the fact that the CCP (a) has absolute control over all media in China and (b) maintains a propaganda network modelled upon the old Soviet model of influence agents. This is why he has no problems going on George Galloway's shows (he's a CCP asset, as he's tied to CGTN, a CCP-controlled outlet) and uncritically parrots CCP positions on Chinese economic and military capabilities despite evidence to the contrary- something that ADV China (now "The China Show") has shone, along with other China watcher channels. Such as this:

That "rifle" has no rifling. That's why those bullet holes look wrong; the bullets are tumbling in flight, are not stable, and might as well be oddly-shaped musket balls. In Close Quarters, like indoors, that may not matter. It does at any distance greater than the effective range for a pistol or shotgun pellets, which is what any rifle or carbine is meant to perform at. We call this problem "keyholing", and it's a reliable tell that the firearm in general is shit quality and can't be presumed safe to use.

In other words, "tofu-dreg" applies to the Chinese military too.

That means that those impressive carriers aren't that impressive. Same with their jets; they don't engage enemy air forces for reasons beyond politics, folks. Those vaunted hypersonic missiles? Don't expect the Chinese to make reliable ones anytime soon, if they can actually make them at all.

Remeber that this is the military that got its ass kicked by the Vietnamese after the Americans left Vietnam, when the NVA were depleated and rebuilding. Not their best, folks, and as such I'd still put the American military above the PLA despite how bad the Americans have gotten.

There is another consideration, which I'll quote the thread-starter for, and involves the Sino-Japanese War (and how badly Japan wrecked China).

The CCP, being somewhat like previous dynasties and thus insular in its thinking, is likely thinking in terms of the Sino-Japanese War. Sure, that war ultimately brought the CCP to power, but those that began in leadership did not benefit from it- and the current CCP leadership, being keenly aware of this fact, are also aware that they are now in the same positions as those their predecessors replaced.

They do not want this. Any war, even a war they win, is Pyrrhic as far as they're concerned since they have good reason to believe that they'll get taken out early by either conventional or nuclear means. The dead cannot enjoy wealth, power, or privledge, so they are unwilling to risk losing theirs; a conflict has to be truly existential for them to overcome their fear of mortality.

This applies to both the Jiang Zemin and the Xi Jinping factions. The loss of Face is too much for either side to bear, and as generational turnover churns out those unsavvy about Face culture and the CCP in the West (and Western Thralls see their Eastern counterparts as rivals to put down, not allies to collaborate with) we'll see this "Pivot to Asia" not only accelerate but actually become effective.

The result is that, unlike Russia, China will be revealed to be a fragile paper tiger for all to see and with this loss of Face the CCP's internal divisions will shatter and the long-theorized collpase will occur. There may or may not be civil war in China, but there will be unrest and with it a massive migration wave; dissidents with foresight will move to seize power as soon as possible and close their borders to mainlanders and those sympathetic to them, as this will amount to defacto colonization, as we see in Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Canada, Australia, the United States, and other countries with significant mainlander intake. It is for the best to force the mainlanders to sort their shit out instead of letting anyone run from their problems.

As for what dissidents should do with this? Again:

Instead, exploit this opportunity to seize as much power as possible and begin push the Thralls in your area to focus on their rivals while purging them from whatever you took from them. They did this very thing to us; turnabout is Fair Play.

Let Globohomo exhaust itself with infighting, then fall upon them when whomever is left is at their lowest. It is a strategy that Sun Tzu would approve of. Empire falls.

1 comment:

  1. Bradford,

    Gonzalo has overlooked the corruption kills factor. We've seen this in real time with the Russo Ukranian war.
    I suspect the Chinese suffer from worse corruption. Further, they'd still have to undertake an amphibious invasion that would dwarf the American efforts in the Pacific. I simply don't see them succeeding. More like a super Dieppe.